3:24 PM – Shares are breaking out of a short-term downtrend that began after the late-November highs near $40.00. While volume today is tracking near normal levels, it has expanded meaningfully compared to the past several sessions, signaling improving participation. There is noted resistance near $39.00, which will be an important level to monitor as price approaches that next technical hurdle.

BUY SIGNALS:
1/21 (1/3) @ $37.91

The annotations on the chart below highlight a well-executed prior TrendLine BreakOuts trade that followed ULTRA rules precisely — both on the way up and on the way out.

• The initial BUY SIGNAL was triggered as UGI emerged from its base and reclaimed key moving averages, positioning the trade early in the move.

• As price advanced and became extended, partial SELL SIGNALS were executed methodically, locking in gains while momentum was still favorable.

• The FINAL SELL SIGNAL occurred as price action began to deteriorate and upside momentum faded, closing out the position near strength rather than waiting for damage.

That sequence produced a clean, profitable swing trade, and — just as importantly — capital was not forced back into the stock once the move ended.

CLICK/TAP CHART TO ZOOM
Chart services courtesy of stockcharts.com. Annotations by James Taulman.

Following the final exit, UGI entered a period of technical repair:

• Price moved into a downward consolidation, working below short-term trendlines.

• The 10 DMA rolled over, and rallies failed to regain momentum.

• These conditions did not justify re-entry, even though the prior trade was a winner.

This restraint is critical.

ULTRA does not recycle capital into former winners simply because they worked before. Re-entries are earned only when:

• A downtrend is broken

• Momentum begins to reassert itself

• Risk can once again be clearly defined

The current 1/21 BUY SIGNAL reflects that shift. The stock has now broken its short-term downtrend, participation has improved, and price behavior is once again actionable. This is not a chase — it is a technically warranted re-engagement.

Key takeaway:
Strong performance is not just about catching winners — it’s about knowing when to step aside and when conditions truly justify coming back in.